New Climate Pledges Barely Shift Global Warming Trajectory — UNEP Warns of Approaching 1.5°C Overshoot

New Climate Pledges Barely Shift Global Warming Trajectory — UNEP Warns of Approaching 1.5°C Overshoot

By Gloria Sarauniya Usman

ABUJA, NIGERIA November, 2025 - Global temperature projections have fallen only marginally despite new climate pledges submitted under the Paris Agreement, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns in its Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target released Tuesday. The latest assessment shows that even with full implementation of updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the world is still heading toward 2.3–2.5°C of warming, far above the Paris Agreement goal.

UNEP notes that only 60 Parties—representing 63% of global emissions—submitted updated NDCs by the 30 September deadline, with new commitments making almost no real difference. Methodological adjustments account for part of the improved projections, while the forthcoming US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will offset the remaining gains. The report concludes that the world is rapidly approaching—and will soon exceed—the 1.5°C threshold, potentially as early as the early 2030s.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the trajectory as alarming but reversible, urging countries to “step up and speed up” climate action, while UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen stressed that nations have repeatedly missed the mark with insufficient ambition. The report highlights a widening implementation gap, with global emissions rising to 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent in 2024, and countries already off track to meet their 2030 targets.

To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, UNEP says emissions must fall 40% by 2030 and 55% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels—far steeper reductions than current pledges offer. Even under a rapid action scenario beginning in 2025, the world would still experience a temporary overshoot of around 0.3°C before gradually returning below 1.5°C by 2100.

The report calls on major emitters—particularly G20 nations, responsible for 77% of global emissions—to drastically scale up ambition. While technologies for deep emissions cuts exist and renewable energy costs continue to drop, UNEP warns that progress will require unprecedented global cooperation, increased support for developing nations and a major overhaul of international finance systems.